Reasoning Under Imperfect Information

TL;DR Expert knowledge is more than facts, rules, procedures, or recipes. Its greatest value often appears when the normal procedure runs out: an unfamiliar failure, an ambiguous observation, or a situation for which no one has already written the answer. Experts draw on a mental model of how the world works, form competing explanations, predict … Continue reading Reasoning Under Imperfect Information →

Seeing the Hook through the Uncanny Valleys Encountered by an Enterprise

This blog describes the Time Molecules process for the analysis of adversarial situations. That includes frauds, competitive games such as Texas Hold'em Poker, and any other situation where imperfect information is the key asset. Beyond sheer skill, good adversaries rely on stealth, sleight-of-hand, misinformation/disinformation, information overload, mimicry (impersonation), etc. Adversaries paint a false picture for … Continue reading Seeing the Hook through the Uncanny Valleys Encountered by an Enterprise →

Analogy and Curiosity-Driven Original Thinking

Original thinking doesn’t spring from a void. It’s the meticulous art of forging a path to a solution where none yet exists, of stitching together lessons from far-flung domains to carry us from where we are to where we wish to be. In everyday life, we rely on zero-sum games—win or lose, right or wrong—yet … Continue reading Analogy and Curiosity-Driven Original Thinking →