One Happy Path for AI Is Healthy Business Competition

TL;DR Much of this is knowingly "duh". Evolution works through variation, competition, failure, pruning, adaptation, and no permanent winner. Businesses already work much the same way: large enterprises provide scale, challengers pressure them, startups try strange things, many fail, and some failures leave behind knowledge that feeds the next attempt. None of that is new. … Continue reading One Happy Path for AI Is Healthy Business Competition →

Reasoning Under Imperfect Information

TL;DR Expert knowledge is more than facts, rules, procedures, or recipes. Its greatest value often appears when the normal procedure runs out: an unfamiliar failure, an ambiguous observation, or a situation for which no one has already written the answer. Experts draw on a mental model of how the world works, form competing explanations, predict … Continue reading Reasoning Under Imperfect Information →

Even ASI Cannot Escape Imperfect Information

TL;DR AI does not need to become superintelligent, reach the singularity, whatever, to create serious risks. The deeper problem is that no intelligence operates with perfect information. Better models can reason faster and make better inferences, but they are limited in conjuring facts that are missing, hidden, stale, deceptive, or unknowable. That has been obvious … Continue reading Even ASI Cannot Escape Imperfect Information →